Apps: To Be As Big As Internet In 2020 But At The Expense Of Small Developers
The future and economics of Mobile Application market was discussed and analyzed comprehensively by the experts at MobileBeat conference, organized by the blog VentureBeat. It predicts a pleasing future for the App market peaking at 10 million apps in 2020. But a gloomy one for developer community which will dwindle drastically. According to Ilja Laurs, CEO of top independent app store GetJar(more info).
The apps will be as big if not bigger than internet with 10 million apps by 2020. But 90% of developers will fail as each developer makes less money.
Last week Apple recorded a milestone of 1.5 billion downloads in just a year with a pool of 65,000 apps in its library. But experts felt that the popularity of Apple App Store(more info) is also its vulnerable point because it caters to ‘one hit wonder’ model as small and budding developers are finding it difficult to make profit from their applications. Most of the iPhone application get popular for short time and then lose traction in a day or two . But Google’s vice president Vic Gundotra has some contrasting things to say.
Apps store is a fad. Its not apps but the browser that will run the future application platform for the mobile device.
So, what are your future predictions? Apps or Browser?
Follow-Up
BBC News : Apps ‘to be as big as internet’ by Maggie Shiels
Silicon Alley Insider : The App Market Will Be As Big As The Internet In 2020 by Preethi Dumpala
PC World : Mobile Apps: What’s in Your Future? by Ian Paul
Pulse2 : The Mobile App Market Will Be As Big As The Internet by Shan Sadiq
Hardware 2.0 : How important are mobile apps to you? by Adrian Kingsley-Hughes
Apple’s app store has been a success, but Apple needs to fix some problems with the pricing model or the success will be like the dot com bubble — it will collapse.
Currently the iTunes store rates apps by the number of downloads, regardless of price. Needless to say, the 99 cent apps get the most downloads, so they rise to the top of the charts. This creates tremendous pressure to lower prices to get on the top 100 list. In fact, recently Hero of Sparta, originally $10, was reduced to 99 cents and went to the top of the charts. All well and good for it, but when $10 apps lower their prices, they push less advanced apps off the bottom of the chart or prevent them from getting on. Imagine if all cars were ranked by the number sold. The BMWs would have to lower their prices or become invisible through lack of exposure. That would then push the Fiats off the bottom of the charts (who is going to buy a Fiat that is the same price as a BMW). Basically we have a pricing landslide as referenced at Yappler.com which collects pricing statistics:
“-What is the average cost per app?
“-Did you know prices dropped over 10% since March?
“http://Yappler.com/Apple-iPhone-App-Store-Stats/”
The answer is a multitiered pricing model — in other words, a top 100 list for $10 apps, a top 100 list for $5 apps, etc.. If a $10 app is at # 15 on the $10 top 100 list, it won’t have to lower its price.
Another very needed improvement is better searching. Basically the Apple store is busting at the seams, but if Apple plays its cards right, developers will flourish and produce incredible software, but without needed changes, many developers will be pushed out of the market by pure economics.
Doug Hogg
Toy Kite Software
I love the Google VP comment- would he be saying the same thing if Android app store had a billion downloads and 65,000 apps to choose from? Doubt it.